May 8, 2025 (EIRNS)—As the leaders of nearly 30 countries gather in Moscow to commemorate Victory Day over the forces of Nazism in what Russia calls the Great Patriotic War, the world stands at the precipice of a new war, a nuclear war that could eliminate the entire human species. |
July 22, 2024 (EIRNS)—This week began in the U.S. with today’s spectacle of the Congressional committee hearing on, “Oversight of the U.S. Secret Service and the Attempted Assassination of President Donald J. Trump,” in which next to no information came out about the July 13 incident. The head of the U.S. Secret Service Kimberly Cheatle stonewalled; most Representatives fulminated, and the public still awaits the truth, after nine days since the murder attempt. To be sure, elected officials and citizens have grounds to be angry: The Secret Service insists there must be an internal investigation, with results due out not for another 60 days |
Jan. 27—“Pentiti!” “No!”…“Ah! tempo più non v’è!” “Repent!” “No!”…“Ah! Your time is up!” But the Doomsday Clock still read 90 seconds to midnight! What had happened? The explanation was simple. The clock-time was not physical time. They had all precisely miscalculated. Anglosphere geopoliticians and “strategic realists,” take heed. “Pentiti!” |
May 23—While it has been noted by former British diplomat Alaistir Crooke, commenting on the admission, both in the London Telegraph and the Spectator, of the failure of the NATO sanctions policy of “financial nuclear war” against Russia, that “delusionary hubris placed ‘blinders’ on Western policymakers; they could not see what was before their own eyes,” he, in his commentary, failed to compare this doomed outlook to that contained in Classical tragedy—for example, Sophocles’ Oedipus Rex. Crooke, like many academic commentators whose descriptive rendering of the present civilizational crisis may be accurate, tells us nothing of “the way out,” of how to defeat tragedy. |
Nov. 21—We observe on Nov. 22 the 60th anniversary of the last man of actual courage to prove that courage as President of the United States, John F. Kennedy. “When, in 1962, U.S. President John F. Kennedy was pressured by hardliners within his own administration to launch a military invasion of Cuba ‘in defense of America,’ after the Soviet Union had placed ballistic missiles there—missiles which, unknown to Americans at the time, were armed with nuclear warheads—he refused, and saved the world from nuclear war, perhaps at the cost of his own life.” That’s how the proof is stated in the invitation to the International Peace Coalition’s “Emergency Forum: No More War Crimes! Economic Development, Not Depopulation!” set for Nov. 26. |
June 23—The contrast is dramatic between the outlook of the two summits now underway, based in Brussels and in Beijing, ending tomorrow. The EU Summit and the BRICS Summit. The radically different approaches shown in the two gatherings prompt us anew to recognize the principle: development is the name for peace. The opposite approach: to destroy the means to life—food, water, energy, sanitation, medical care—and to make war, is the death of humanity. Yet that is the worsening picture of turmoil centered in the Trans-Atlantic, while the dying financial system is left in place. |
April 18—It is bad enough that the West ignored Russia’s red line against NATO expansion to its borders; but next to no one in the ranks of nominal leadership is honest and moral enough to acknowledge this mistake, and start acting responsibly. Now we have more red lines being crossed. In this dangerous and ugly situation, those singular individuals who do have the character to recognize the red lines, see the big picture, and stand up for a new paradigm, count immeasurably in history. |
March 13—Following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the unlimited insurance of deposits held at those institutions, in apparent violation of U.S. law, signals a policy orientation towards a bailout of the entire banking system. |
Aug. 26—When Napoleon arrived in Moscow on September 14, 1812, he presumed that on that day, or the next, he would be greeted by an official delegation presenting to him Russia’s conditions for surrender. When, instead, the next day, he was greeted by multiple fires that nearly burned down the entire city of Moscow, he, nevertheless, clung to the assumption that Alexander I was merely delaying the inevitable. It was only when, in mid-October, the first snowflakes began to fall, and no terms of surrender had yet arrived, that Napoleon dimly sensed what he still did not wish to apprehend. His 600,000 army would be annihilated, not by the opposing Russian (and Prussian) military force, not even by “General Winter,” but by himself. Today’s NATO triumphalists should take note, but they will not. |
Jan. 14 -- A week of summits scheduled to resolve the deepening tensions over Ukraine between Russia and the United States and NATO did not succeed, based on the initial press briefings and read-outs produced by the participants. The talks came after two video calls between Presidents Biden and Putin, and were centered on U.S. charges of an impending invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, and the Russian's insistence on receiving written, legally-binding treaties from the U.S. and NATO, agreeing to no further eastward expansion of NATO, including a prohibition on placing sophisticated weapons and ABM systems in Ukraine.
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Sept. 7—The international press conference today hosted by Executive Intelligence Review gathered a powerful group of former military and intelligence professionals, political leaders and candidates, journalists and peace advocates from the U.S. and other countries, documenting the criminal and evil “hit list” compiled by the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) and the “kill list” compiled by the Myrotvorets ("Peacemaker") website in Ukraine, demanding that they be shut down and that all U.S. funding be immediately stopped. |
Jan. 6—In what acted as a simultaneous commemoration of (Western) Epiphany and (Eastern) Christmas Day, Russian President Vladimir Putin, following the request of Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, declared a ceasefire in the special military operation, beginning at noon on January 6, and ending midnight Christmas Day, January 7. Such a “Christmas truce” had been advocated by many religious figures in the trans-Atlantic sector as well, and featured as one expression of the anti-war, pro-economic development “Ten Principles” campaign of the Schiller Institute. Though Ukraine’s leadership refused the truce, Christians throughout the world, including the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, now being suppressed in that “bastion of democracy and tolerance,” now know who actually respects the idea, “Peace On Earth, Good Will Toward Men.” |
Dec. 3, 2024 (EIRNS)—“The central formal problem of contemporary knowledge is that the fact, which naïve opinion takes for the elementary or simple basis of human knowledge, proves upon critical examination to be a highly suspect authority. The concept of a ‘fact,’ we discover through reflection, is the result of a process of judgment, and therefore, by no means as simple or self-evident as naïve opinion assumes.” —Lyndon LaRouche, Dialectical Economics |
April 21—Important possibilities are appearing, that NATO’s war with Russia may not cause more than a billion human beings to be swept away by hunger and famine and cold this year, and that escalation to nuclear war can be prevented. They certainly don’t arise from the global bankers’ gathering meeting in Washington this week; nor from military events or negotiations in Ukraine. Rather, statements and active cooperation are coming from some major nations to increase food production despite all; and the Schiller Institute’s worldwide mobilization is working to win thousands of leaders around the world to create a new strategic and economic development order before catastrophe strikes. |
Jan. 8,—It used to be understood that governments exist for the benefit of the lives of their people, and were expected to enact policies to such effect. Imperial and geopolitical wars, and other such wasteful things were rightly seen as distractions from the true mission of government—to advance their nation and their people toward a better future. |
April 30—Chinese President Xi Jinping’s phone call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last on April 26, at Zelenskyy’s initiative, threatened to kick over the warmongers’ applecart, by opening up a new pathway for a possible negotiated solution to the Ukraine crisis—and with it, a step away from the nuclear brink. |
March 20—Will former U.S. President Donald Trump be arrested today? Will Presidents Xi and Putin succeed in achieving a negotiated peace in Ukraine? Will the U.S.-U.K.-NATO geopolitical establishment that proposes destroying Taiwan’s economy if Beijing takes control of the island, be swept from the halls of power? |
July 28—Today President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping spoke for over two hours, at the request of Biden, which is all to the good, given the dangerous state of the world. In the context of their discussion of Taiwan, and Western actions, Pres. Xi warned, as translated in the official China read-out, “Those who play with fire, will perish by it.” This was not identified in the U.S. read-out on the call, which stated with deliberate ambiguity, “On Taiwan, President Biden underscored that the United States policy has not changed and that the United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” |
As the COP 26 “strange beast, its hour come at last, slouches toward Glasgow,” the news has suddenly arrived: “The Queen will not attend the climate change summit.” Will Prince Andrew, out of a sense of imperial duty to the Crown and empire, emerge from hiding and, in the spirit of the season, go to Glascow dressed as his mother? Though the Queen has now cancelled going to the Glasgow ghoul-fest, the business of depopulation must proceed. So perhaps Andrew will oblige, impersonating “Psycho’s” Norman Bates (and Norman’s mother,) inadvertently bringing an unwelcome guest, psychological truth, to the doomed Glasgow masquerade.In the real world, Afghanistan stands “at the precipice” of destruction by famine at the hands of a vindictive sanctions “victors policy.” A Haitian publication, Haiti Libre, runs the headline: “Deprived of Fuel by Gangs—The Country at the Gates of Hell.” Uganda’s 35-year president, Yoweri Museveni(!) in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, says: “Africa can’t sacrifice its future prosperity for Western climate goals. The continent should balance its energy mix, not rush straight toward renewables—even though that will likely frustrate some of those gathering at next week’s global climate conference in Glasgow.” But Swedish eco-freaks know far better than Ugandans, or nuclear power-advocating Bolivians, that the real enemy is technological progress, and that “technological progress is racism.” Technological progress is what the notorious Bertrand Russell so delicately referred to, in his 1924 book Icarus, as “white science.” “White Skin, Black Fuel, on the Danger of Fossil Fascism,” a May 2021 book compiled by the “Zetkin Collective” featuring Andreas Malm, professor of ecology at Lund University, is a triple-retread apology for terrorism “to save the planet from technology.” Malm/“White Skin, Black Fuel,” is an “Eminem,” white rapper-style knock-off of Franz Fanon and his 1961 book “Black Skin, White Masks.” Malm writes: “The role of the radical activist fringe is to instill in those who do not want to engage in active activism the courage to take to the streets and make their voices heard. To apply the lesson of Black Lives Matter to the climate movement is to seek modes of action that are equivalent to destroying the police station in Minneapolis or toppling statues. I’m not advocating violence against people, but I do think that property destruction has played a role in virtually every social movement that has achieved its goal.” This is a crude, less literate restatement of the argument in the opening chapter “Concerning Violence” of Fanon’s 1961 The Wretched of the Earth, itself an updated restatement of Georges Sorel’s 1908 Reflections On Violence. This is luddism in the cyber age, like “Unabomber,” but complete with the cyber-Dionysian world of addictive video-games and their participants. This can all be monitored in real time through, for example, Amazon’s recently-announced special Cloud arrangement with GCHQ, MI5, and MI6, a form of human data-mining for future deployment purposes. The new, social-media-driven environmental politics, with its self-appointed “guardians of the Earth,” will feel justified to take any recourse and use any means necessary, including violence. They will be personally anointed with the “responsibility to protect the earth,” augmented through drug use, along the lines of the old Eleusinian “mystery cults” of Greece. This Dionysian eco-horde, defining the destruction of civilization, and ultimately, humanity, as “a necessary sacrifice for the survival of the planet,” is to, through self-destruction, bring about the New Age, the “transvaluation of all values.” This “Great Game” is to be fought in “the Empire of the Mind,” or so the rather limited imaginations of the decadent elites of the delusional trans-Atlantic world prefer to believe. Both China and Russia display significant strategic restraint. The entries below document this. China, while quite explicit about the flaws in the Afghanistan political process, has insisted that nations must work with the Taliban authorities in aiding the transition to a more advanced form of government, or be held accountable for a willful genocide against that population over the next months. Russia, through slowly advancing talks with the United States on advanced strategic and tactical weapons systems; with Ukraine on natural gas and oil; and with a firm rebuke of the dangerously provocative statements of the outgoing German defense minister and others in NATO, keeps sanity “on the table.” The Indo-Pacific “Orcus” naval adventure, actually a pathetic revisioning of the British imperial “East of Suez” outlook abandoned in 1968, is already underwater, in a different way than it intended. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, in attempting to “bring Taiwan into the UN,” appears to believe, in defiance of the physical reality of the Covid pandemic, trans-Atlantic industrial and manufacturing collapse, and hyperinflation, and the counterposed physical economic achievements of China and its Belt and Road initiative, that he—or anyone—can turn back the clock to the “bad old days” prior to 1972, when the United States refused to recognize “Red China.” “Just as the spatial expanse and anti-entropic evolution of the universe are infinite, so is the intellectual and moral perfectibility of the human mind. Therefore, every additional human being is a new source for further development of the universe and for the solution of problems on Earth, such as overcoming poverty, disease, underdevelopment, and violence.” This is the efficient antidote to the Malthusian outlook of Malm, Blinken, and the British royals. “Taking care of each other is key in this ongoing development. It is the combination of creativity and empathy that transcends mere day-to-day exigencies. Scientific and technological progress has a positive effect in that, when applied to the production process, it increases the productivity of the labor force and of industrial and agricultural capacities, which in turn leads to rising living standards and a longer life expectancy for more and more people.” These conceptions, contained in The Schiller Institute/Clintel Wake Up Call" are the manifesto of an Anti-Malthusian Resistance statement, manifest in the Schiller Institute’s Committee for the Coincidence of Opposites, that has significantly advanced through various actions in the past days. Most of all, this includes the Keynote given this past Saturday, “The Coming Fall of the House of Gaia,” as part of the educational process for youth of the past weekend led by its founder, Helga Zepp-LaRouche, which should be studied by all, before the Halloween Summit.
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July 24—Escalations over the recent few days have made it clear that the growing danger of war will not go away until a qualitative change occurs among Western nations. Any thought that, because nothing disastrous has happened yet in 17 months of conflict in Ukraine, therefore everything will continue to be fine—is absolute idiocy. |
July 7, 2024 (EIRNS)—If it weren’t so extraordinarily dangerous, the current strategic crisis would almost be comical. |
There is no such thing, either in nature, in politics, or in culture (particularly in good Classical composition,) as “equilibrium.” There is no such thing in successful global policymaking as a “balance of forces,” a “balance of terror,” or an “Earth in the balance.” There is also no such thing as “peace,” if one means by that, the “absence of tensions.”There is peace through development. The idea “peace through development,” as manifest in Franklin Roosevelt’s Four Freedoms, or the slain American President John F. Kennedy’s June 1963 American University speech proposing a joint American-Soviet exploration of space not even one year after the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, represents a type of “isochronic” action, that can take the form of a physical force, as with the technologies based on new physical principles, that were the true goal of the “beam weapons” program of LaRouche in the 1980s. Such “heavy ideas” may proposed as a policy statement, whereby a leader and the society he or she represents, upshifts, or proposes to upshift the development of the entire human race, through some specific action, in that instant in time, which is “infinitely dense” with the potential for permanent change. Those conscious of their responsibility to discover, propose and implement the specific measures that can link that society’s momentary actions to the permanent survival of mankind, can allow “average citizens” to discover, with increasing perfection the historical necessity and reason for the existence of that nation, that leader, and that society. Lacking such, that society is morally unfit to survive, and will not survive for long. Is that to be the fate of the present day trans-Atlantic world, including the badly misguided United States? Speaking in an interview on November 22, regarding the 30th anniversary of his film “JFK” and his recent release of an hours-long documentary, “JFK Revisited,” filmmaker Oliver Stone noted that had it not been for JFK and RFK, unhinged military factions in the United States would have, in Stone’s view, launched, or attempted to launch, nuclear war against Russia during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Just over a year later, President Kennedy was slaughtered in Dallas. Not only is there no way, according to Stone, that the official “narrative” of those world-shattering events can be true; it is also true that, despite the existence of laws that had required the release by now of all or most of the files related to that assassination, that was, once again this year, not done. Some, probably including President Vladimir Putin of Russia, might persuasively argue, that at this moment, the danger of thermonuclear war is either as close now, or even closer, than it was during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Specifically, Putin stated recently that Russia developed hypersonic weapons in order to efficiently counter the emerging danger of thermonuclear attack. “The Russian Federation is concerned to an extent over major military exercises carried out near its borders, including in the Black Sea just recently, when strategic bombers were flying just 20 kilometers away from our border, armed with precision weapons and potentially even nuclear weapons. All this poses a threat to us,” he said Nov. 30. Today Putin has also said that he now must “insist on the elaboration of concrete agreements that would rule out any further eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of weapons systems posing a threat to us in close proximity to Russia’s territory. We suggest that substantive talks on this topic should be started. I would like to note in particular that we need precisely legal, juridical guarantees, because our Western colleagues have failed to deliver on verbal commitments they made.” The possibility of, as well as opportunity for strategic miscalculation, or the eruption of an unchecked “flight forward” impulse from another nation, like Ukraine, could, even in the short term, trigger a form of confrontation that would spiral out of control far more quickly than the credulous would expect. As dangerous, the still-prevalent idea, that “international affairs” are incidental to the day-to-day life among citizens of various nations, who think they are “faced with more pressing problems,” is the debased quality of thinking that prevents the trans-Atlantic world from mobilizing the moral fitness to survive in the face of well-known threats, let alone the unusual challenges of the pandemic, including the unknown mutations and evolutions of the coronavirus. China has given the world extraordinary good news, thanks to researchers who have identified an invariant part of the virus found in all presently-known mutations of the virus strain. An antibody called monoclonal antibody 25B5 appears to neutralize COVID-19 without mutations as well as “variants of concern” (VOCs.) This potential breakthrough may turn out to be as important in its ability to inspire a crash international program of joint research in order to resolve the coronavirus problem, as it may be in treating the disease. This is the sort of effort, given our campaign “calling all virologists and epidemiologists” as announced in the Joycelyn Elders letter, that would radiate as a form of cultural optimism. That would do more to reverse the rise in drug overdoses, suicides and serial/mass meurders in Europe and the United States than multiplying those nations’ police and detention capabilities a hundredfold. Speaking of isochronicity: Operation Ibn Sina, named for a renowned Islamic scholar and genius who saved countless lives through the radiating influence of his medical ideas and solutions over more than 600 years, also challenges insipid popular-cultural sterotypes, for example the caricature of the “violent, angry Muslim bomber.” The idea of an international health platform; the building of tens of thousands of hospitals and 10 million hospital beds worldwide; the creation of 10 million doctors, physician’s assistants and nurses; the emergency construction of the necessary water, sanitation and transportation infrastructure to supply medicines and food to those that are most in need; the provision of power by an additional 200 gigawatts of energy-capacity, largely nuclear, and largely provided to the poorest areas of the world, since they are those most likely to be the source of origin for lethal, treatment-resistant undetected infections, demonstrates that the eradication of poverty, something pioneered recently most successfully in China, is the world’s true first line of defense. But the inner life of that proposal is the change in the identity of each of us toward “the other,” a change in the mind of each and all of the ostensible adversaries that must drop their mutual animosities in order that the human race mutually prosper. That is the spirit that was seen in the November 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall, which was not merely “political realignment,” but the sudden evaporation of “the impossible.” Words failed the pragmatic politicians of the time all over the world. Only Beethoven and Schiller, and ideas of that type were able to speak to the hearts of the world’s people. In her Wednesday webcast Helga Zepp-LaRouche said, “I think the most important news, in this respect, is coming from the World Health Organization. They just announced that they are working on a global accord for pandemic prevention and response, and that should be announced by 1 March. Now, that is very late, but it means there is time to influence the global record, and that has been our concern from the very beginning.” Forty-five years ago, Lyndon LaRouche said: “Our approach depends absolutely upon applying our energies, on very short notice and in a concentrated way, at certain momentarily crucial points of current developments. Without the conceptual approach we employ, it would be more or less impossible to pre-determine which such points of access for intervention have the potentiality of translating a very small amount of concerted physical effort into a relatively massive shift in the overall political economic situation. Without that same specialized method, it would be virtually impossible to predefine the kinds of intermediate results which are the short term, direct goals of such interventions…. We have developed the capability … to direct our relatively tiny physical resources for activity to crucial points of the political-social process to such a fact that—with increasing scale and influence—we are frequently able to so alter the course of events on a national and sometimes a global scale from the course events would have otherwise followed. Because we are essentially alone, entirely dependent upon our own resources, because we have learned that there exists no other force which would duplicate our rule if we did not exist…, every major development within nations of the world as a whole forces us to place that on the agenda as a matter whose outcome will be significantly affected by either our effective intervention or failure to act.” Not October 1962, but November 1989, is our choice, not because we have the resources, or the “connections,” but because we have the isochronic power of creative reason, as that is expressed in the Operation Ibn Sina approach to “peace through development.” |
The following is an edited transcript of the interview with Dr. Shah Mohammad Mehrabi conducted December 15, 2021 by EIR’s Gerald Belsky and Michael Billington. Since 2002, Dr. Mehrabi has been a member of the Board of Governors of the Da Afghanistan Bank, the Afghan central bank. Since 1992 he has been a professor in the Business and Economics Department at Montgomery College in Maryland and chairman of the department since 2003. [UPDATE, 12/22/2021 ― The Letter to President Biden referenced by Dr. Mehrabi below, calling for the release of the Afghanistan funds being held by the Federal Reserve, has subsequently been released with the signatures of 46 members of the House of Representatives. It can be read here.] Gerald Belsky: Dr. Mehrabi, could you tell us something about your background and your relationship to the current Taliban government? Dr. Mehrabi: Thank you, Gerry, and I want to thank also the Schiller Institute for all their efforts to be able to make a difference in releasing the Afghan reserves, and to be able to get a positive result in eradicating the poverty that has ensued and will continue unless concrete measures are taken by the United States and European countries who at this stage, hold the Afghanistan Foreign Reserves overall. Now, I’m an economist, and as an economist I have spent close to 20 years on what is called the Supreme Council, the governing board of the Central Bank of Afghanistan. I also served on the fiscal side as a senior economic advisor for two Ministers of Finance, and worked on generating revenue, and also dealt with government spending when I was at the Ministry of Finance. While in the Ministry of Finance, I continued my role as a member of the Supreme Council of the Central Bank, which is again a board very similar to that of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. It consists of seven board members, and I am also chairman of the Audit Committee of the Central Bank of Afghanistan. I have been extremely active in trying to bring reform, as we did when I went back, when I was first invited to Afghanistan, and tried to reform the financial institution, and more specifically, to at least make certain that we have a functioning and effective Central Bank. Prior to 2003 and 2004, the Central Bank had a dual function. It was both a commercial bank and also a government bank. The commercial bank function was given to the newly created commercial banks, and the Central Bank of Afghanistan, as an independent entity, was re-structured and started its function in early 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Effects of Freezing Foreign Exchange ReservesBillington: The main subject that you have been dealing with, as have we, is that the U.S. Federal Reserve and several European banks have $9.5 billion in reserves which belong to the Afghan Central Bank. This money does not belong to the banks that are holding it, but it’s being frozen for political reasons and disagreements with the new government in Kabul, which makes it essentially a form of illegal economic warfare. Could you describe the impact of this on the people of Afghanistan and what actions you have taken to attempt to free these funds? Dr. Mehrabi: Here is an important point about freezing Afghan foreign exchange reserves. It has contributed to economic instability which I predicted back in September. I predicted a number of things would occur, and they have all come into being, because now there is data to substantiate what I had already predicted in September. At that time, I predicted the currency would depreciate—it has depreciated by more than 14% since August. I also predicted that food prices would increase to double digits—and double digit has occurred. The Price of wheat has gone up by more than 20%, flour has gone up by over 30%, cooking oil has gone up by 60%, and gasoline has gone up by 74%. In the banking sector, I also said at that time that it needs liquidity, and to bring liquidity, it is very important that the reserves must be released, I said, to stabilize prices and to prevent a further collapse of the afghani, which is the national currency. The 14% currency depreciation hits mostly consumer purchasing power. It puts people in a position where they cannot buy the basic necessities of life. Also, the asset prices of all these goods have gone up. Also, I said that imports would decline, and that has occurred. There was a reduction in demand for these imported goods, and consumption has declined significantly because people have no access to their own money in the bank. On the top of that, they don’t have jobs. Many lost their jobs; they did not earn any income and then higher prices further suppressed the demand for buying goods and services. So that’s what you see: hunger and starvation has come into being. I also said that trade clearly is not taking place. As a matter of fact, imports from Pakistan were 46% lower than during the same period last year. Exports are very meager—dried fruit, carpets, and so on. That has remained somewhat stable but has not been generating adequate foreign exchange reserves. Wages have declined. Getting back to the impact of this freezing of Afghanistan’s reserves, we already see that has created immense poverty. What I propose is that we should allow the Central Bank of Afghanistan a limited, monitored, and conditional access to their own reserve. This is Afghanistan’s reserve, it does not belong to anybody else, but to Afghan people. They should be allowed to have access to their reserve, and this foreign exchange reserve should be used for the purpose of auctioning. Why? Because auctioning is designed to prevent the depreciation of the afghani against the dollar and other foreign currencies, and also to increase the purchasing power of afghanis and prevent it further from declining day in and day out. The Central Bank of Afghanistan will not be able to maintain domestic price stability without auctioning. Price stability will not come into being unless these reserves are released. One of the main functions of the Central Bank of Afghanistan is to maintain price stability, and that they cannot do. What I suggested at that time and still suggest, is that access [be given] to $150 million—now I’m saying $200 million, because Afghanistan’s reserves have dwindled significantly—per month out of the $7.1 billion [held in the U.S. Federal Reserve], which is roughly half of the reserve that is required monthly to stabilize the economy. I also said that the United States will be able to verify that these funds are used exclusively for the purpose of stabilizing the currency. The auctions are conducted electronically and the transactions between the Central Bank and commercial banks are automatically recorded. But in addition to this, I suggested that the use of funds could be audited by an international auditing firm that is currently operating in Afghanistan. If there’s any misappropriation, then they could cut off the funds. An important point here is that we want to be able to try to use the funds to prop up the value of the afghani, to allow people to buy essential goods and services. People are calling me constantly who say they cannot afford to buy bread, which is the mean staple for everyone. My own brother is dean at the university. He’s being paid, but even he cannot afford to function without our help through remittances—he is not able to purchase the basic necessities. There are many other Afghans who are constantly talking about the fact that they cannot buy ordinary goods. So, we need to be able to help meet the needs of ordinary Afghans, because, again, higher prices of food. And that can be handled without any difficulty by allowing this reserve to be released. The important point is that we know, based on empirical evidence, what we have done in the past with regard to the release of the funds. Every time that we wanted to engage in an auction, we were able to stabilize the currency and move to price stability. As a matter of fact, the record of the Central Bank is very clear. The Central Bank was able to maintain a single-digit increase in prices for most of the two [past] decades. Further, look at empirical evidence: the Taliban just about three weeks ago auctioned off $2.5 million out of the $10 million they had proposed to auction, and that auctioning off during the same day resulted in the appreciation of the currency. The value of the afghani went up and then it stayed there for two days. But $2.5 million is not adequate. The Central Bank has to intervene continuously to be able to maintain this price stability. If they don’t do it, you’ve got the crisis that you see right now. Higher prices, people are going to be starved to death, and then, famine is going to come as a result of drought as well. People are going to move out of Afghanistan, and there will be banging on the European doors trying to be admitted. Proposed Modification of the Sanctions PolicyBelsky: You have called for the release of $150 million a month from the frozen reserves, to engage in dollar auctions to stabilize the value of the currency. We think that would allow these western countries to justify their continued holding of Afghan funds, which they have no legal nor moral right to do. Wouldn’t you agree that they must release all the funds as a matter of principle and moral obligation? Dr. Mehrabi: I have said that the United States Treasury needs to clarify and modify their sanctions law. Whether the U.S. Treasury can legally withhold another country’s reserve is not clear in my mind. So that needs to be clarified. They have shown some degree of flexibility in the area of humanitarian aid, but it has to be broader than humanitarian exemptions. There are concerns from the Treasury Department about terrorism financing, and others have raised the issue regarding the competency of government and its leaders. I think all of those issues can be discussed. We have a lot of models that the United States has used in the past. Iran was allowed a release of funds to be used for the purpose of trade. The U.S. Office of Foreign Asset Control will have to allow some degree of flexibility, to be able to make certain that exceptions are made, not only for humanitarian related issues, but also for allowing the Central Bank to get access to their reserves. I think you cannot punish Afghans. We talk about the issue of women and so on—women and children are the first people suffering from this. They are not able to buy goods and services. On the one hand, if we argue, that we want to provide humanitarian aid, but we are going to choke off the economy as well—those are two opposite arguments. The arguments do not really make sense. On the one hand, you say, I want to help with humanitarian aid, but I’m going to choke off the economy so that the ordinary Afghans will not be able to have access to food and basic necessities. Humanitarian Aid Is Good, but Not a SolutionBelsky: You’ve answered my next question implicitly, but I’m going to ask it anyway. The World Bank, as you know, is now planning to restore about $230 million in aid. But even this small amount, they’re saying, has to go through UNICEF and the World Health Organization instead of going through the Afghan banking system. What is your view of this? Dr. Mehrabi: I don’t know where UNICEF is going to use it, for what purposes. I said that before. Or WHO, and even the World Food Program. If they are for the purpose of purchasing grains and other basic necessities, that is good. But humanitarian aid is not a solution to rekindling the activities of the economy. Humanitarian aid, as I have said all along, while it is necessary, it’s a stop gap measure, it’s not a complete measure to get the economy overall to move to a point where they could get an increase in aggregate demand, which is very essential if the economy is going to function and generate enough revenue for daily economic activity. Billington: One of the sanctions, or some of the sanctions, have, as I understand it, denied Afghanistan access to the SWIFT money transaction system. What is the impact of this on the country? Dr. Mehrabi: This is what commercial banks have been complaining about. The commercial banks had a window where they could engage with corresponding banks. And that has been stopped. That has been blocked by Treasury. The Treasury Department would not allow it. And the correspondent banks are hesitant and reluctant to engage in any activity, unless they get a clearance from Treasury. Unless the Treasury relaxes, to ensure some degree of flexibility, allow some exemptions from sanctions, and allow this SWIFT entity to allow the transactions to take place, we’re again going back to the same situation. Liquidity is not going to be there. We’re going to be choking off the economy overall. Do Not Bypass the Central Bank!Belsky: Dr. Mehrabi, there’s been a recognition by many individuals and organizations of the point you’re making, that humanitarian aid will not work if there’s no banking system. However, one individual has floated a proposal. In 2019 Alex Yerden, the former financial attaché for the Treasury Department in Kabul, put forward a proposal that may be being discussed behind the scenes. His proposal is to bypass the Central Bank in order to avoid giving money to the current government, and to set up a private central bank, or to use a commercial bank like the Afghanistan International Bank or some other bank, to which some of these funds can be channeled which are being illegally held. The proposal is to set up a private bank that would carry out some of the functions you’ve described, such as the auctioning of money to prop up the currency. What is your view of this idea of setting up a private central bank to bypass the current Central Bank? Dr. Mehrabi: We have invested about 20 years in modernizing, in establishing a Central Bank that is able to administratively, based on the law, perform all the functions that a central bank is to perform. That includes supervision of the Central Bank, issuing of banknotes, being able to be the lender of last resort, and to provide liquidity to the commercial banks. Those functions cannot be taken over by a commercial bank. A commercial bank is there to be able to earn profit, while a central bank’s main function is not profitability. Also, a commercial bank cannot be relegated with the responsibility of a central bank. A central bank has personnel that are well trained, who have the education and experience that they could perform all their particular duties based on the law. That is still not revised, it still is in practice. To allow another entity, or a parallel institution, to a great extent is going to result in a situation where it will create a lot of confusion, and in one way or another, it will result in the credibility in the Central Bank being eroded in the mind of the public at large. The issuing of currency is the domain of the Central Bank. A commercial bank does not have the authority, legally or otherwise, to be able to engage in issuing currency or injecting liquidity, or afghani, into the system. It cannot issue currency as a medium of exchange. The currency issued by the Central Bank, however, is accepted because the people trust that particular currency to use as a medium of exchange or store of value and use it as a unit of account Remember here, it’s not only U.S. dollars, it is also Afghanistan’s currency that is an important element in bringing about liquidity into the economy. So, establishing a parallel institution, if it’s designed for dismantling the Central Bank, as some of these people have advocated, is not a move that will rescue the poor people, ordinary Afghans, from the misery that, out of no fault of their own, they are experiencing. The Prospect of a Banking CollapseBillington: The UN has addressed the crisis in the banking system. The U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, gave a report to the UN Security Council Nov. 17, saying: “The dire humanitarian situation in the country is preventable as it is largely due to financial sanctions that have paralyzed the economy.” Also, in November, the UN Development Program said that “the commercial banking system is critical to continue even the humanitarian and other basic programs that are supported by the UN and some of the NGOs and other partners. So, the economic cost of a banking system collapse, with the concomitant negative social consequences, would be colossal.” That’s what the UN Development Program said. Has the UN taken any significant steps to stop this disaster, which they are describing? Dr. Mehrabi: That’s a good question. Let’s look at what we know. I want to mention also that UNAMA, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, was able to bring in $16 million in cash, as a part of the humanitarian aid for Afghanistan. So, they have taken that measure. Even UNAMA, however, does not have a very good record in the mind of many Afghans—their record of performance in the past, as far as efficiency, credibility and accountability is concerned. But anyway, $16 million has been brought in twice. So, there’s been about $32 million in cash, almost all of it directed toward humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. It was not brought in through the Central Bank. While the UN clearly talks about the collapse of the system—and I think in talking about a financial sector and the constraints that the financial sector is faced with—they realize that the liquidity of both commercial banks and the Central Bank have been eroded. But still they have not taken enough measures to be able to address the channeling of these funds to the Central Bank for the purpose of auctioning. So, you know, we say, talk the talk, but walk the walk. I think it is an issue that needs to be brought up on this UN position. But the statement by the UN Special Representative, they clearly realize that, and understand that a banking system collapse could come into being. But you have to take concrete measures to prevent the banking system from collapsing. And what do you do in this case? It is not going to happen by only addressing humanitarian aid. Firms and households will be unable to access bank deposits. To begin with, right now they are not able to get access to their bank deposits. The Central Bank has put strict limits on withdrawals because they don’t have enough liquidity in the system. So, when you look at these international transactions that were mentioned before, SWIFT and all that—that has been blocked to a great extent. Firms are unable to transfer funds overseas to pay for imports. Bottlenecks are created in every direction that you can think of. The outlook, obviously, is very bleak unless measures are taken by the United States—in this case to release these particular funds and to allow them to be channeled to the Central Bank. At this stage, the depletion of international reserves has created a quagmire here. I would hope that the UN Special Representative would look clearly at what we have suggested in this case. Look at a very simple thing—economists usually look at the costs and benefits. What is the cost of a collapse of the banking system, and what are the benefits of making certain that it is rescued? How much would we—that is, Europe and the United States—gain by making certain that the economy functions in a normal way by allowing them to have access to their reserve, and then also inject other liquidity in terms of cash to the people who were funded by ERDF [European Regional Development Fund]. ERDF has a lot of funds, and that could be used for the salaries of these people who are not being paid, so that when they have their salary, they could spend it in order to buy goods and services. That will help. The aggregate demand, or the total demand, would be activated and the economy will be able to use the multiplier effect to generate economic growth. A Direct Appeal to President BidenBelsky: Dr. Mehrabi, you have been meeting with members of the Congress to urge them to call on President Biden to release the Afghan assets. I know that a letter is being circulated. In fact, I received an email from the Maryland Peace Action Group, and I know peace action groups all over the United States are circulating an appeal to people to call on their congressmen to sign on to this letter. The letter is being circulated by representatives Pramila Jayapal, Sarah Jacobs and Jesús García, to urge President Biden to release the $9.5 billion in frozen Afghan reserves. What can you say about your efforts in the Congress and with the news media to promote this policy? Dr. Mehrabi: This letter is an effort we jointly wrote back, I think, in October, but then the Congress was very busy. Our meetings have continued with congressmen and senators. Through those meetings and efforts, we have been able to get a number of sponsors for this particular letter. So far, we have 23 people who have signed it. Initially, Jayapal, Jacobs, and García signed. But now we have other Congress members who have joined the bandwagon and have signed. I had a meeting today with the staff of the Congress and the Senate, where I made a presentation and pitched the notion of this letter, and got signatures by more people. We were hoping to get more signatures, and then present this two-page letter to President Biden. We are highlighting what needs to be done and why it should be done, and how important it is to make certain that people in Afghanistan are not going to suffer from starvation, and to make certain that we do not have famine and universal poverty. This is in the national interest of the United States. The argument has been made that the United States has lost a lot of sweat and financial resources in making certain that these institutions were established. And now we should not be dismantling this particular institution. The Afghans deserve to have access to their foreign reserves. They deserve to have a life that is lived in peace and prosperity, in a country that has suffered from 40 years of war. So, all those arguments are clearly spelled out in the letter to President Biden. It will be submitted to President Biden soon, most likely on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Operation Ibn SinaBillington: Helga Zepp-LaRouche, as you know, the founder of the international Schiller Institutes, stands very strongly against this policy of genocide that is being waged against Afghanistan by the U.S. and the allied NATO nations. What is needed beyond the immediate aid, she insists, is the launching of a modern health care system with all that that entails, meaning clean water, electricity, transportation as well as the medical facilities. Zepp-LaRouche has called this project for international cooperation Operation Ibn Sina, after the famous 11th century medical genius, poet, astronomer, and philosopher, who was in fact born in the region of today’s Afghanistan and is much beloved across the entire Islamic world. What do you think about this effort, and what can you say about Ibn Sina? Dr. Mehrabi: I thank you for the question again. Here it is that we are looking at the current Afghanistan, a collapse of a government that is coming into being, and Afghanistan is faced with economic and development challenges, and daunting economic and political challenges. Any effort to bring about development and to be able to bring economic growth is welcome. I think the effort by Mrs. LaRouche in terms of making certain that the health issues [are met]—Afghanistan, has a very high mortality rate—is a move that will at least expand the life of many of those people who are suffering shortened lives because of the ailments that they suffer from, and because of not having access to health care. And also, obviously, access to clean water and electricity. Right now, Afghanistan cannot import a lot of electricity and cannot pay for it because of, again, the shortage of currency. I think these are all moves that we should all support, and we should all be able to at least in one form or another, be very appreciative of. In the health area, Afghanistan is experiencing a third COVID-19 wave that started back in April. Infection rates have reached a very high level. Coupled with a drop in foreign aid, the government is not able to generate enough money to address the health issues. At the top of it is the World Bank, which was paying the employees of the health sector—they stopped the payments. All of this combined has really brought about a catastrophic situation for the economy of Afghanistan. So, a move like this, brought about by Mrs. LaRouche, is a welcome move. And I think Ibn Sina obviously, as you mentioned clearly, is well known in that part of the region as well as in Afghanistan. [There is an] Ibn Sina Hospital right in the heart of Kabul that many patients visit. Modernizing that particular institution, with the help of Mrs. LaRouche and others would be highly valued and appreciated. Large-Scale Infrastructure for Economic DevelopmentBillington: The other major issue, which we at the Schiller Institute and EIR have promoted is large-scale infrastructure development, especially with the help of the Belt and Road Initiative. We’ve just learned that Pakistan has now begun constructing a rail connection from Quetta to Kandahar, and we know that starting last February, there was a plan approved between Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan to develop a rail link from CPEC, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, from Islamabad through the Khyber Pass into Kabul and then on to Tashkent, as part of the Belt and Road, which would give all of the Central Asian countries access to the Arabian Sea for the first time, and also transform Afghanistan. What is your vision for Afghanistan’s development, and do you think it’s possible that these projects can continue without fixing the banking crisis first, getting cooperation from China and other neighboring countries? Dr. Mehrabi: I think we should. Besides humanitarian aid, this Belt and Road Initiative from China could provide Afghanistan with long-term economic viability. I think that is an important point to keep in mind. One possibility is obviously Afghanistan joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is a central part of that Belt and Road Initiative. I think Beijing has pledged over $60 billion for infrastructure in Pakistan. Initially, Afghanistan was not allowed to be a part of it, but now I think it has been invited. This initiative, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, is a good option for the development of Afghanistan. It is also important to keep in mind that we talk about the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline. TAPI could generate quite a bit of money for Afghanistan—transit fees I think have been projected at over $400 million. This pipeline clearly is also an important work. But we also have other areas for development purposes that have been addressed or talked about, but have not been fully explored and materialized, such as minerals. When I was in Afghanistan in 2008 at the Ministry of Finance, a contract was signed with the Metallurgical Corporation of China to develop the Mes Aynak Copper Mine, but because of the security situation, it has not really been able to produce much. Then we had the Hajigak iron ore mine as an important one to explore. We have oil basins that China is trying to explore as well. So, there are many other opportunities. Also, Afghanistan has a large reserve of lithium besides other minerals that could be generating quite a bit of foreign exchange reserve, if these were active. Belsky: Are there any other thoughts you would like to convey? Sanctions Only Hurt the Ordinary PeopleMr. Mehrabi: Well, I am a firm believer, as I have said all along, that the reserve has to be released and we should be able to make certain that ordinary Afghans are not put in a position where they could be forced to not have adequate food. As an economist, as an Afghan-American, I am deeply concerned about the fate of the 35 million people in Afghanistan who have known little more than war and suffering their whole life. And now for another country to suffocate those particular people—you know, the result will only be a new refugee crisis, a new refugee crisis of the kind that we saw in 2014 in Syria, or even worse. Afghans will flee on foot. They will carry their babies in one hand and whatever belongings they have in the other, and they will go to the west, to Iran, in hopes of making it into Turkey and then into Europe. I think it is a failure—not only shortsighted—for the United States, but also the final abandonment of the Afghan people. I think it’s very important that the United States, which negotiated the evacuation with the Taliban, which was negotiating how they could attack IS [Islamic State terrorists], could engage fully in those activities, but does not want to get fully engaged in releasing these particular funds. You see these policies, the kind that are now in force. They never hurt the people who they are intended to. It will not hurt the current government. We know that, by the evidence in many other areas. It hurts the ordinary Afghans who deserve to have access to their particular money. They deserve to not have their life savings become worthless, worthless because inflation is going to eat them, the value of their money, in a blink of an eye. They deserve to be able to feed their families. So again, that failure to provide access, as I said before, I think it’s shortsighted. Let’s try to act in a way where indeed we help these people. The United States invested a lot of money. Try to avoid the spiral of price increases and food shortages and currency depreciation and bank closures. Let’s try to avoid the complete collapse of the economy. Billington: Well, thank you very, very much, Dr. Mehrabi. We appreciate it. We will do everything we can to get your message out with our effort and others who are joining with you and trying to prevent this atrocity, and to at least make up for the destruction that has been waged against your country over all these years. Dr. Mehrabi: Thank you very much. Thank you, Gerry, and thank you, Mike, for all your help and efforts in this area. I’m very appreciative of your dedication to this area. I’m an optimist. It took a while to get this letter out, but we finally did it, with meetings almost twice, three times a week, or sometimes four times, for different groups. We have got to a level where at least we have 23 co-signers today. Hopefully, the number will increase. I would like to get this letter out before Christmas and before the congressmen disappear, rather than bringing it out in the new year. We’ll try to do that. We will keep you apprised of what is going on, and we’ll keep in touch. And thanks again very much. Belsky: And thank you for your efforts, Dr. Mehrabi.
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We can either willfully choose to reverse that process of imperial wars, looting, and terror which has defined post-9/11 America, through courageous acts of intervention, or we can willfully plunge into our own self-destruction. Speakers: Kirk Wiebe, Dennis Speed, and others. |
