April 16, 2025 (EIRNS)—As the new Trump Administration bumbles into its fourth month in office, bullishly overthrowing any and all conventional approaches, the world is struggling to find order in the new president’s actions. The wildly varying statements regarding Iran, for example, are understandably causing concern. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff indicated on April 14 that an Iranian nuclear enrichment program of up to 3.6% was acceptable for a civilian nuclear program—a statement that he shockingly contradicted only a day later, when he said, “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.” A similar situation is happening with regard to the tariff policy, where businesses and entire nations are being whipsawed by the uncertainty this introduces.
Chaos is not an ally of prosperity—neither in economies nor in international relations. And clearly President Trump is not doing himself any favors by fostering such contradictory and unpredictable policies. However, while these considerations are important and should be addressed, we must be careful not to lose focus on the underlying issues amidst the dizzying pace of events.
Lyndon LaRouche wrote in a 1984 memo: “If you ever catch yourself drawing conclusions from merely the list of facts you believe you have in your possession, stop yourself right there and think again. As the accountant told the judge, it was the cash that wasn’t there that led to uncovering the embezzlement. Always be aware that you may have missed something of critical importance to making a decision.” For example, LaRouche wrote: “It is the things that aren’t there that can really do you in, as the fellow said as he was falling down the empty elevator-shaft.”
From this standpoint, consider the now-raging debate in Germany about providing long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, as proffered by incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Right as the situation between the U.S. and Russia is looking more promising, walking the world back from the brink of World War III, what if Germany were to suddenly assist Ukraine in launching missiles deep into Russia? The head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service just noted on April 15: “in the event of aggression from the North Atlantic Alliance against the Union State [of Russia and Belarus], damage will certainly be inflicted on the entire NATO bloc….” Is Trump aware of this danger?
Or take the case of China and the growing tariff dispute. What actually are the physical-economic capabilities the U.S. has to withstand a full-blown trade war with the world’s largest manufacturing economy? China’s decision to restrict rare earth metals and magnets may be just the tip of the iceberg, and could spell a much bigger problem for an American economy heavily dependent on imports. Vietnam’s expressed interest in accepting the offer to join the BRICS and expand cooperation with China could also be merely an initial indication of the kind of massive counter-reaction Trump’s policy will cause around the world. The attempt to de-couple from China is likely to work just about as well as did the efforts to isolate Russia, and “de-dollarization” might soon become the least of the United States’ problems. What kind of quack economists are advising Trump to take this risk?
And last, but certainly not least, what kind of effect will this chaos have on the bloated and over-leveraged financial system which has been kept afloat by Federal Reserve liquidity since 2008? As was recently seen with a rapid rise in U.S. bond market rates, this system is highly unstable and will quickly run up against the $2 quadrillion derivatives bubble which is waiting to blow. How much turmoil can this financial system stand before it goes into an irreversible collapse?
It is on factors like these that the real world is being determined, not on the day-to-day events presented as news in the media. And make no mistake—these factors are clearly understood by those who would like to give Trump the “Liz Truss treatment” and return the U.S. to its dumb-giant status as the enforcer of the Western imperial system. No amount of cleverness, or playing “3D chess,” will avoid the underlying realities confronting the U.S. and the world—and any attempt to ignore this will only make the situation worse.
The patriot and world citizen today will act to bring about a new series of agreements between the major powers to develop their nations and increase the productive powers of labor of the world as a whole. That is not only how you correct trade imbalances, but how you create a new security and development architecture—all while avoiding a British geopolitical trap in the process. This will be taken up at the Schiller Institute’s May 24-25 conference—make sure to register and attend.
